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Rodez vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
4/23/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Rodez38%
×Draw28%
Paris FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.21
Paris FC
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 127 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Paris FC
1.06

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Paris FC
1.09

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
67%
Rodez or Paris FC
72%
Draw or Paris FC
62%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
16%
Paris FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
70%
Rodez 2+ goals
34%
Rodez 3+ goals
12%
Paris FC 1+ goals
67%
Paris FC 2+ goals
30%
Paris FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
53%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.09 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Paris FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Paris FC attack 1.06 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rodez scores more
38%
level
28%
Paris FC scores more
33%

Rodez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rodez 1–0 Paris FC

Rodez beat Paris FC 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.