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Rodez vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
S. Benchamma 72'
2/20/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rodez34%
×Draw31%
Montpellier35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
0.98
Montpellier
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.31
Montpellier
0.82

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Montpellier
0.65

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
65%
Rodez or Montpellier
69%
Draw or Montpellier
66%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
13%
Montpellier wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
62%
Rodez 2+ goals
26%
Rodez 3+ goals
8%
Montpellier 1+ goals
63%
Montpellier 2+ goals
26%
Montpellier 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
50%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.98

Montpellier attack 0.82 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rodez scores more
34%
level
31%
Montpellier scores more
35%

Montpellier at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
S. BenchammaRodezRodez · M
7.7

Match Events

36'
Nathanaël Mbuku
43'
Wilitty Younoussa
62'
Julien Laporte
67'
Ayanda Sishuba
67'
A. Sishuba← Y. Issoufou
69'
A. Trouillet← W. Younoussa
69'
S. Benchamma← M. Saka
72'
S. Benchamma↳ J. Mendes
81'
T. Savanier← E. Junior Pereira da Silva
81'
N. El Hannach← E. Tchato
84'
C. Issanchou Roubiou← E. Jean-Lambert
90+2'
O. Joly← T. Arconte
90+2'
H. Tebily← K. Nagera

Possession

40%Rodez

Shots

14Rodez

Pass accuracy

47%Rodez

Statistics

RodezMontpellier
Overview
40%Possession60%
14Total Shots12
6Corners6
13Fouls19
Shots
14Total Shots12
8On Target3
2Off Target7
4Blocked2
4Inside Box8
10Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
267Total Passes413
194Accurate Passes335
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls19
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Ligue 2: Rodez 1–0 Montpellier

Rodez beat Montpellier 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2026.

Goals: S. Benchamma (72').

Montpellier controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.