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Rodez vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dunkerque
Dunkerque
11/21/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Rodez44%
×Draw27%
Dunkerque30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.40
Dunkerque
1.10

Rodez creates 27% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 92 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Dunkerque
1.03

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Dunkerque
1.48

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Dunkerque+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Dunkerque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
70%
Rodez or Dunkerque
73%
Draw or Dunkerque
56%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
21%
Dunkerque wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
75%
Rodez 2+ goals
41%
Rodez 3+ goals
17%
Dunkerque 1+ goals
67%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
30%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
60%
Dunkerque (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Dunkerque away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Dunkerque defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dunkerque attack 1.03 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rodez scores more
44%
level
27%
Dunkerque scores more
30%

Rodez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodez vs Dunkerque

Rodez and Dunkerque drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.