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Rodez vs Concarneau — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concarneau
Concarneau
12/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rodez45%
×Draw27%
Concarneau28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.35
Concarneau
1.00

Rodez creates 35% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Concarneau
0.84

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Concarneau
1.37

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Concarneau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
72%
Rodez or Concarneau
73%
Draw or Concarneau
55%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
21%
Concarneau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
74%
Rodez 2+ goals
39%
Rodez 3+ goals
15%
Concarneau 1+ goals
63%
Concarneau 2+ goals
26%
Concarneau 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
62%
Concarneau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Concarneau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Concarneau attack 0.84 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rodez scores more
45%
level
27%
Concarneau scores more
28%

Rodez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rodez 2–0 Concarneau

Rodez beat Concarneau 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.