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Rodez vs Boulogne — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Boulogne
Boulogne
T. Arconte 9'
8/29/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rodez42%
×Draw28%
Boulogne31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.30
Boulogne
1.08

Rodez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.31
Boulogne
1.00

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Boulogne
1.29

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
69%
Rodez or Boulogne
72%
Draw or Boulogne
58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
19%
Boulogne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
73%
Rodez 2+ goals
37%
Rodez 3+ goals
14%
Boulogne 1+ goals
66%
Boulogne 2+ goals
29%
Boulogne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
57%
Boulogne (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more
42%
level
28%
Boulogne scores more
31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Q. BraatRodezRodez · G
8.5

Match Events

9'
T. Arconte
30'
Jordan Mendes Correia
54'
Nathan Zohoré
60'
L. Siliadin← L. Raillot
66'
N. Galves← C. Issanchou Roubiou
66'
E. Mpembele Boula← N. Fatar
66'
C. Fatou← Z. Kone
67'
I. Balde← K. Nagera
69'
Julien Boyer
70'
S. Duflos← A. El Farissi
70'
H. Toure← N. Binet
72'
M. Achi← O. Joly
78'
Tairyk Arconte
83'
M. Baaloudj← T. Arconte
84'
L. Laurent← E. Jean-Lambert

Possession

40%Rodez

Shots

12Rodez

Pass accuracy

48%Rodez

Statistics

RodezBoulogne
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots21
4Corners4
15Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots21
4On Target7
6Off Target10
2Blocked4
6Inside Box16
6Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
283Total Passes441
208Accurate Passes347
73%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Ligue 2: Rodez 1–0 Boulogne

Rodez beat Boulogne 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 29, 2025.

Goals: T. Arconte (9').

Boulogne controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.