Rodelindo Román 2–3 San Marcos de Arica

Rodelindo Román

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

San Marcos de Arica

8/6/2022

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rodelindo Román34%

×Draw31%

San Marcos de Arica35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodelindo RománExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.02

Rodelindo Román

1.00

San Marcos de Arica

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rodelindo Román

1.00

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

allows per match

Rodelindo Román

1.05

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodelindo Román ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rodelindo Román or draw

65%

Rodelindo Román or San Marcos de Arica

69%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

66%

Winning margin

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+

13%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals

63%

Rodelindo Román 2+ goals

26%

Rodelindo Román 3+ goals

8%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

64%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

27%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)

49%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodelindo Román at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodelindo Román attack 1.00 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rodelindo Román scores more

34%

level

31%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

35%

San Marcos de Arica at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff