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Rodelindo Román vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
11/25/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Municipal de Colina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rodelindo Román38%
×Draw29%
General Velásquez33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodelindo Román
1.16
General Velásquez
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 77 away

creates per match

Rodelindo Román
1.00
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

Rodelindo Román
1.05
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodelindo Román ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rodelindo Román or draw
67%
Rodelindo Román or General Velásquez
71%
Draw or General Velásquez
62%

Winning margin

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
16%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
69%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
32%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
11%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
65%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
29%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
54%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodelindo Román at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodelindo Román attack 1.00 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rodelindo Román scores more
38%
level
29%
General Velásquez scores more
33%

Rodelindo Román at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rodelindo Román will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodelindo Román vs General Velásquez

Rodelindo Román and General Velásquez drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Colina in Colina.