Rodelindo Román 2–1 Deportes Valdivia

Rodelindo Román

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Valdivia

9/6/2021

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Colina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rodelindo Román39%

×Draw28%

Deportes Valdivia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodelindo RománExpected goals in this matchDeportes Valdivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.08

Rodelindo Román

1.20

Deportes Valdivia

1.08

Rodelindo Román creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.05

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Rodelindo Román

1.00

Deportes Valdivia

1.11

allows per match

Rodelindo Román

1.05

Deportes Valdivia

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodelindo Román ↓

Deportes Valdivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodelindo Román or draw

67%

Rodelindo Román or Deportes Valdivia

72%

Draw or Deportes Valdivia

61%

Winning margin

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+

17%

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals

70%

Rodelindo Román 2+ goals

34%

Rodelindo Román 3+ goals

12%

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

66%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

29%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)

54%

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodelindo Román at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodelindo Román attack 1.00 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rodelindo Román scores more

39%

level

28%

Deportes Valdivia scores more

33%

Rodelindo Román at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rodelindo Román will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff