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Rodelindo Román vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Concepción
Concepción
6/20/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rodelindo Román36%
×Draw28%
Concepción36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodelindo Román
1.16
Concepción
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 59 away

creates per match

Rodelindo Román
1.00
Concepción
1.27

allows per match

Rodelindo Román
1.05
Concepción
1.31

finishing

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par
Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodelindo Román ↓

Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodelindo Román or draw
64%
Rodelindo Román or Concepción
72%
Draw or Concepción
64%

Winning margin

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
15%
Concepción wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
69%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
32%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
11%
Concepción 1+ goals
69%
Concepción 2+ goals
32%
Concepción 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
50%
Concepción (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodelindo Román at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodelindo Román attack 1.00 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Concepción attack 1.27 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rodelindo Román scores more
36%
level
28%
Concepción scores more
36%

Rodelindo Román at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rodelindo Román will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rodelindo Román 1–2 Concepción

Concepción beat Rodelindo Román 2-1 in Segunda División on June 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.