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Rodange 91 vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Rodange 91
Rodange 91
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/28/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 24Stade Municipal de Pétange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodange 9120%
×Draw21%
F91 Dudelange59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodange 91
1.10
F91 Dudelange
2.04

F91 Dudelange creates 85% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 112 away

creates per match

Rodange 91
1.07
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Rodange 91
1.78
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Rodange 91+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodange 91 ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rodange 91 or draw
41%
Rodange 91 or F91 Dudelange
79%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
80%

Winning margin

Rodange 91 wins by 2+
7%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Rodange 91 1+ goals
67%
Rodange 91 2+ goals
30%
Rodange 91 3+ goals
10%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
60%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)
25%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodange 91 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodange 91 attack 1.07 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Rodange 91 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rodange 91 scores more
20%
level
21%
F91 Dudelange scores more
59%

F91 Dudelange at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Rodange 91 0–3 F91 Dudelange

F91 Dudelange beat Rodange 91 3-0 in National Division on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Pétange in Pétange.