F91 Dudelange 3–2 Rodange 91: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rodange 91

8/25/2024

National Division · Round 4Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

F91 Dudelange67%

×Draw18%

Rodange 9115%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchRodange 91

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.07

F91 Dudelange

2.42

Rodange 91

1.07

F91 Dudelange creates 126% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 69 away

2.45

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

2.45

Rodange 91

0.96

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

1.19

Rodange 91

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Rodange 91 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

85%

F91 Dudelange or Rodange 91

82%

Draw or Rodange 91

33%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

44%

Rodange 91 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

91%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

69%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

43%

Rodange 91 1+ goals

66%

Rodange 91 2+ goals

29%

Rodange 91 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

81%

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.39 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Rodange 91 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.42

Rodange 91 attack 0.96 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

67%

level

18%

Rodange 91 scores more

15%

F91 Dudelange at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff