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Rodange 91 vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Rodange 91
Rodange 91
CANC
00:00
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/5/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 20Stade Joseph Philippart (Rodange)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Rodange 9119%
×Draw21%
F91 Dudelange60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodange 91
1.08
F91 Dudelange
2.06

F91 Dudelange creates 91% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 115 away

creates per match

Rodange 91
1.05
F91 Dudelange
2.37

allows per match

Rodange 91
1.74
F91 Dudelange
1.10

finishing

Rodange 91+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodange 91 ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rodange 91 or draw
40%
Rodange 91 or F91 Dudelange
79%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
81%

Winning margin

Rodange 91 wins by 2+
7%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Rodange 91 1+ goals
66%
Rodange 91 2+ goals
29%
Rodange 91 3+ goals
10%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
61%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)
24%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodange 91 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodange 91 attack 1.05 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Rodange 91 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rodange 91 scores more
19%
level
21%
F91 Dudelange scores more
60%

F91 Dudelange at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rodange 91 host F91 Dudelange

April 5, 2020: Rodange 91 take on F91 Dudelange in National Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rodange 91 host F91 Dudelange at Stade Joseph Philippart (Rodange).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.