Roda 2–1 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Roda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

VVV Venlo

B. Reith 72'

J. Müller 27'

M. Berden 90+1'

4/7/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 33Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Roda46%

×Draw21%

VVV Venlo33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodaExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.70

Roda

2.02

VVV Venlo

1.70

Roda creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.04

creates per match

1.70

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Roda

2.04

VVV Venlo

1.70

allows per match

Roda

1.70

VVV Venlo

2.01

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Roda-0.90scores less

VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Roda or draw

67%

Roda or VVV Venlo

79%

Draw or VVV Venlo

54%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+

26%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals

87%

Roda 2+ goals

60%

Roda 3+ goals

33%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

82%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

51%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)

58%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 2.04 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.02

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Roda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roda scores more

46%

level

21%

VVV Venlo scores more

33%

Roda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Raatsie

Roda · G

8.3

Match Events

27'

J. Müller

58'

S. Ouaissa← W. Ould-Chikh

58'

L. Daneels← E. Peña Zauner

63'

O. Džepar← T. Bijleveld

63'

R. Kongolo← W. Spieringhs

70'

M. Odriss← R. Sedláček

70'

M. Berden← M. Kaastrup

72'

B. Reith↳ A. van der Heide

77'

Matisse Didden

78'

P. Doesburg← T. Verheijen

78'

J. Kluskens← R. Janssen

81'

Orhan Dzepar

86'

R. Klaasen← E. Sierra

90+7'

90+3'

90+8'

90+7'

90+6'

90+1'

M. Berden↳ M. Kosidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodaVVV

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots11

3Corners5

12Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots11

2On Target7

4Off Target3

1Blocked1

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

353Total Passes471

258Accurate Passes380

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Roda 2–1 VVV Venlo

Roda beat VVV Venlo 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 7, 2024.

Goals: J. Müller (27'), B. Reith (72'), M. Berden (90+1').

VVV Venlo controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.

Roda vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Roda 2–1 VVV Venlo