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Roda vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Roda48%
×Draw28%
Olímpic Xàtiva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.34
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.86

Roda creates 56% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 44 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.73

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.41

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Roda or draw
76%
Roda or Olímpic Xàtiva
72%
Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva
52%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
23%
Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
74%
Roda 2+ goals
39%
Roda 3+ goals
15%
Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
58%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
21%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
67%
Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Roda scores more
48%
level
28%
Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
24%

Roda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Olímpic Xàtiva

Roda beat Olímpic Xàtiva 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.