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Roda vs Novelda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Novelda
Novelda
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Roda47%
×Draw26%
Novelda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.49
Novelda
1.05

Roda creates 42% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 27 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Novelda
1.11

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Novelda
1.70

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Novelda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Novelda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Roda or draw
73%
Roda or Novelda
74%
Draw or Novelda
53%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
24%
Novelda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
77%
Roda 2+ goals
44%
Roda 3+ goals
19%
Novelda 1+ goals
65%
Novelda 2+ goals
28%
Novelda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
64%
Novelda (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Novelda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Novelda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.49

Novelda attack 1.11 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Roda scores more
47%
level
26%
Novelda scores more
27%

Roda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roda 2 – 1 Novelda

Roda beat Novelda 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.