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Roda vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
3/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 31Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Roda42%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.65
NAC Breda
1.45

Roda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 90 away

creates per match

Roda
1.76
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Roda
1.27
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roda or draw
66%
Roda or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
58%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
22%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
81%
Roda 2+ goals
49%
Roda 3+ goals
23%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
77%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
42%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
56%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.76 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Roda scores more
42%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
34%

Roda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Roda 3–1 NAC Breda

Roda beat NAC Breda 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.