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Roda vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
8/16/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Roda46%
×Draw23%
FC OSS31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.79
FC OSS
1.44

Roda creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Roda
2.04
FC OSS
1.19

allows per match

Roda
1.70
FC OSS
1.54

finishing

Roda-0.90scores less
FC OSS-0.36scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Roda or draw
69%
Roda or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
54%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
25%
FC OSS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
83%
Roda 2+ goals
53%
Roda 3+ goals
26%
FC OSS 1+ goals
76%
FC OSS 2+ goals
42%
FC OSS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
60%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 2.04 + FC OSS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC OSS attack 1.19 + Roda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roda scores more
46%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
31%

Roda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HavekotteFC OSSFC OSS · G
8.0

Match Events

46'
L. Beerten← T. Köther
55'
Xander Lambrix
57'
P. Sejdiu← A. van der Heide
62'
S. Zitman← K. Loukili
62'
G. Korte← M. Remans
62'
J. Kuijpers← J. Mulder
71'
T. Wildeboer← A. Stensrud
73'
I. Griffith← J. Schwirten
78'
Joshua Zimmerman
81'
R. Leijten← R. Kongolo
87'
T. van der Werff← A. Allemeersch

Possession

53%Roda

Shots

18Roda

Pass accuracy

52%Roda

Statistics

RodaFC
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots11
5Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots11
5On Target3
10Off Target4
3Blocked4
3Inside Box6
15Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
410Total Passes365
324Accurate Passes263
79%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Roda 0 – 0 FC OSS

Roda and FC OSS drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 16, 2024.

Roda controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.