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Roda vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Elche II
Elche II
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 14Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Roda36%
×Draw29%
Elche II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.15
Elche II
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Roda or draw
65%
Roda or Elche II
71%
Draw or Elche II
64%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
15%
Elche II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
68%
Roda 2+ goals
32%
Roda 3+ goals
11%
Elche II 1+ goals
67%
Elche II 2+ goals
31%
Elche II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
51%
Elche II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Elche II attack 1.25 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Roda scores more
36%
level
29%
Elche II scores more
35%

Roda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Roda 0–2 Elche II

Elche II beat Roda 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3 in Vila-real.