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Roda vs Dordrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dordrecht
Dordrecht
12/13/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Roda53%
×Draw22%
Dordrecht25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.94
Dordrecht
1.25

Roda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

creates per match

Roda
1.76
Dordrecht
1.22

allows per match

Roda
1.27
Dordrecht
2.11

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Roda or draw
75%
Roda or Dordrecht
78%
Draw or Dordrecht
47%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
31%
Dordrecht wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
86%
Roda 2+ goals
58%
Roda 3+ goals
30%
Dordrecht 1+ goals
71%
Dordrecht 2+ goals
36%
Dordrecht 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
68%
Dordrecht (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.76 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Roda scores more
53%
level
22%
Dordrecht scores more
25%

Roda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Roda 0–1 Dordrecht

Dordrecht beat Roda 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.