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Roda vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Acero
Acero
9/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Roda46%
×Draw29%
Acero25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.29
Acero
0.87

Roda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Acero
0.75

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Acero
1.29

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Acero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Roda or draw
75%
Roda or Acero
71%
Draw or Acero
54%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
21%
Acero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
72%
Roda 2+ goals
37%
Roda 3+ goals
14%
Acero 1+ goals
58%
Acero 2+ goals
22%
Acero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
65%
Acero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Acero attack 0.75 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roda scores more
46%
level
29%
Acero scores more
25%

Roda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Roda 1–1 Acero

Roda and Acero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3 in Vila-real.