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Rockingham City vs Perth Glory II — Western Australia NPL 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
2 – 3
Perth Glory II
Perth Glory II
5/22/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 9SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City35%
×Draw22%
Perth Glory II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.67
Perth Glory II
1.85

Perth Glory II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
1.33
Perth Glory II
1.63

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.07
Perth Glory II
2.01

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Perth Glory II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Perth Glory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
57%
Rockingham City or Perth Glory II
78%
Draw or Perth Glory II
65%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
17%
Perth Glory II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
81%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
50%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
23%
Perth Glory II 1+ goals
84%
Perth Glory II 2+ goals
55%
Perth Glory II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
45%
Perth Glory II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Perth Glory II away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Perth Glory II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Perth Glory II attack 1.63 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rockingham City scores more
35%
level
22%
Perth Glory II scores more
43%

Perth Glory II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Perth Glory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Rockingham City 2–3 Perth Glory II

Perth Glory II beat Rockingham City 3-2 in Western Australia NPL on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.