Rockingham City 0–1 Mandurah City: Result & Stats

Rockingham City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mandurah City

8/31/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 22SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City24%

×Draw20%

Mandurah City56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchMandurah City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.26

Rockingham City

1.44

Mandurah City

2.26

Mandurah City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

0.91

creates per match

2.07

2.45

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Rockingham City

0.91

Mandurah City

2.07

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.45

Mandurah City

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Mandurah City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Mandurah City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

44%

Rockingham City or Mandurah City

80%

Draw or Mandurah City

76%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

11%

Mandurah City wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

76%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

42%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

18%

Mandurah City 1+ goals

89%

Mandurah City 2+ goals

66%

Mandurah City 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

30%

Mandurah City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Mandurah City away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + Mandurah City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mandurah City attack 2.07 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rockingham City scores more

24%

level

20%

Mandurah City scores more

56%

Mandurah City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mandurah City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff