Rockingham City 1–3 Inglewood United

Rockingham City

FT

1 – 3

Inglewood United

8/24/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 21SafeRad Stadium (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City35%

×Draw22%

Inglewood United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchInglewood United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.90

Rockingham City

1.72

Inglewood United

1.90

Inglewood United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

1.33

creates per match

1.74

2.07

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Rockingham City

1.33

Inglewood United

1.74

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.07

Inglewood United

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Inglewood United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Inglewood United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

57%

Rockingham City or Inglewood United

78%

Draw or Inglewood United

65%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

18%

Inglewood United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

82%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

51%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

25%

Inglewood United 1+ goals

85%

Inglewood United 2+ goals

56%

Inglewood United 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

45%

Inglewood United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Inglewood United away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.11 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Inglewood United defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Inglewood United attack 1.74 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rockingham City scores more

35%

level

22%

Inglewood United scores more

43%

Inglewood United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff