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Inglewood United vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Inglewood United
Inglewood United
FT
4 – 1
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
5/1/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 7Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Inglewood United58%
×Draw20%
Rockingham City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inglewood United
2.19
Rockingham City
1.29

Inglewood United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

creates per match

Inglewood United
1.38
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Inglewood United
1.55
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Inglewood United+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inglewood United ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Inglewood United or draw
78%
Inglewood United or Rockingham City
80%
Draw or Rockingham City
42%

Winning margin

Inglewood United wins by 2+
35%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inglewood United 1+ goals
89%
Inglewood United 2+ goals
64%
Inglewood United 3+ goals
37%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
72%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
37%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inglewood United (draw refunded)
72%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inglewood United at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inglewood United attack 1.38 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Inglewood United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Inglewood United scores more
58%
level
20%
Rockingham City scores more
22%

Inglewood United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Inglewood United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Inglewood United 4–1 Rockingham City

Inglewood United beat Rockingham City 4-1 in Western Australia NPL on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Perth Plasterboard Centre Stadium in Perth.