Rockingham City 2–3 Floreat Athena: Result & Stats

Rockingham City

FT

2 – 3

Floreat Athena

6/1/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 11SafeRad Stadium (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City30%

×Draw22%

Floreat Athena48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchFloreat Athena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.94

Rockingham City

1.48

Floreat Athena

1.94

Floreat Athena creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

1.82

2.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Rockingham City

1.33

Floreat Athena

1.82

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.07

Floreat Athena

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Floreat Athena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Floreat Athena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

52%

Rockingham City or Floreat Athena

78%

Draw or Floreat Athena

70%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

13%

Floreat Athena wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

77%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

43%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

19%

Floreat Athena 1+ goals

86%

Floreat Athena 2+ goals

58%

Floreat Athena 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

38%

Floreat Athena (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Floreat Athena away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.63 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Floreat Athena defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Floreat Athena attack 1.82 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rockingham City scores more

30%

level

22%

Floreat Athena scores more

48%

Floreat Athena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Floreat Athena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff