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Rockingham City vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
2 – 3
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
4/20/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 5SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City41%
×Draw20%
ECU Joondalup39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
2.27
ECU Joondalup
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
0.91
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.45
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
61%
Rockingham City or ECU Joondalup
80%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
59%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
23%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
90%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
66%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
39%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
89%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
65%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
51%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rockingham City scores more
41%
level
20%
ECU Joondalup scores more
39%

Rockingham City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rockingham City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Rockingham City 2–3 ECU Joondalup

ECU Joondalup beat Rockingham City 3-2 in Western Australia State League 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.