Rockingham City 2–2 ECU Joondalup: Result & Stats

Rockingham City

FT

2 – 2

ECU Joondalup

7/13/2019

Western Australia NPL · Round 16SafeRad Stadium (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City31%

×Draw24%

ECU Joondalup46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchECU Joondalup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.70

Rockingham City

1.35

ECU Joondalup

1.70

ECU Joondalup creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

2.07

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Rockingham City

1.33

ECU Joondalup

1.33

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.07

ECU Joondalup

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

ECU Joondalup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

54%

Rockingham City or ECU Joondalup

76%

Draw or ECU Joondalup

69%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

13%

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

74%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

39%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

15%

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

82%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

51%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

40%

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

ECU Joondalup attack 1.33 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rockingham City scores more

31%

level

24%

ECU Joondalup scores more

46%

ECU Joondalup at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff