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Rockdale City Suns vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
3/19/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 7Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rockdale City Suns47%
×Draw22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2131%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockdale City Suns
1.95
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.53

Rockdale City Suns creates 27% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns
2.02
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns
1.42
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw
69%
Rockdale City Suns or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
78%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
53%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
27%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
86%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
58%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
31%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
45%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
61%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.95

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more
47%
level
22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
31%

Rockdale City Suns at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockdale City Suns vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Rockdale City Suns beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 5-1 in New South Wales NPL on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.