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Rockdale City Suns vs St. George Saints — New South Wales NPL 2026

Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St. George Saints
St. George Saints
3/6/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 4Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Rockdale City Suns54%
×Draw22%
St. George Saints24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockdale City Suns
2.00
St. George Saints
1.28

Rockdale City Suns creates 56% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns
2.02
St. George Saints
1.14

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns
1.42
St. George Saints
1.98

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par
St. George Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

St. George Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw
76%
Rockdale City Suns or St. George Saints
78%
Draw or St. George Saints
46%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
32%
St. George Saints wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
86%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
59%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
32%
St. George Saints 1+ goals
72%
St. George Saints 2+ goals
37%
St. George Saints 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
69%
St. George Saints (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

St. George Saints away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + St. George Saints defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

St. George Saints attack 1.14 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more
54%
level
22%
St. George Saints scores more
24%

Rockdale City Suns at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Rockdale City Suns 4–0 St. George Saints

Rockdale City Suns beat St. George Saints 4-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.