Rockdale City Suns 5–0 Hills Brumbies

Rockdale City Suns

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hills Brumbies

6/30/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 22Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rockdale City Suns67%

×Draw18%

Hills Brumbies15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockdale City SunsExpected goals in this matchHills Brumbies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.11

Rockdale City Suns

2.51

Hills Brumbies

1.11

Rockdale City Suns creates 126% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

2.02

creates per match

0.80

1.42

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns

2.02

Hills Brumbies

0.80

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns

1.42

Hills Brumbies

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Hills Brumbies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw

85%

Rockdale City Suns or Hills Brumbies

82%

Draw or Hills Brumbies

33%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+

45%

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals

92%

Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals

71%

Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals

45%

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals

67%

Hills Brumbies 2+ goals

30%

Hills Brumbies 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)

82%

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.51

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more

67%

level

18%

Hills Brumbies scores more

15%

Rockdale City Suns at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff