Rockdale City Suns 3–2 Blacktown City

Rockdale City Suns

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Blacktown City

2/21/2026

New South Wales NPL · Round 3Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rockdale City Suns42%

×Draw23%

Blacktown City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockdale City SunsExpected goals in this matchBlacktown City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.54

Rockdale City Suns

1.73

Blacktown City

1.54

Rockdale City Suns creates 12% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 96 away

2.02

creates per match

1.67

1.42

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns

2.02

Blacktown City

1.67

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns

1.42

Blacktown City

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Blacktown City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw

66%

Rockdale City Suns or Blacktown City

77%

Draw or Blacktown City

58%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+

22%

Blacktown City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals

82%

Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals

52%

Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals

25%

Blacktown City 1+ goals

79%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

45%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)

55%

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more

42%

level

23%

Blacktown City scores more

34%

Rockdale City Suns at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff