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Rochester Rhinos vs Inter Miami II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Rochester Rhinos
Rochester Rhinos
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
5/14/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 8Monroe Community College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rochester Rhinos68%
×Draw17%
Inter Miami II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochester Rhinos
2.49
Inter Miami II
1.06

Rochester Rhinos creates 135% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 50 away

creates per match

Rochester Rhinos
2.25
Inter Miami II
0.88

allows per match

Rochester Rhinos
1.25
Inter Miami II
2.72

finishing

Rochester Rhinos+0.00on par
Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochester Rhinos ↓

Inter Miami II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rochester Rhinos or draw
86%
Rochester Rhinos or Inter Miami II
83%
Draw or Inter Miami II
32%

Winning margin

Rochester Rhinos wins by 2+
46%
Inter Miami II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rochester Rhinos 1+ goals
92%
Rochester Rhinos 2+ goals
71%
Rochester Rhinos 3+ goals
45%
Inter Miami II 1+ goals
65%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
29%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rochester Rhinos (draw refunded)
83%
Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochester Rhinos at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochester Rhinos attack 2.25 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.49

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Rochester Rhinos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rochester Rhinos scores more
68%
level
17%
Inter Miami II scores more
14%

Rochester Rhinos at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rochester Rhinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Rochester Rhinos 4–1 Inter Miami II

Rochester Rhinos beat Inter Miami II 4-1 in MLS Next Pro on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Monroe Community College Stadium in Rochester, New York.