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Rochefort vs Standard Liège II — League #487 2026

Rochefort
Rochefort
Preview
18:00
Standard Liège II
Standard Liège II
10/3/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 7
55%
Rochefort
model favours
55%24%22%

Rochefort have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochefort55%
×Draw24%
Standard Liège II22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochefort
1.74
Standard Liège II
1.00

Rochefort creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rochefort
1.27
Standard Liège II
0.40

allows per match

Rochefort
1.60
Standard Liège II
2.20

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par
Standard Liège II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Standard Liège II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw
78%
Rochefort or Standard Liège II
76%
Draw or Standard Liège II
45%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+
30%
Standard Liège II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals
82%
Rochefort 2+ goals
52%
Rochefort 3+ goals
25%
Standard Liège II 1+ goals
63%
Standard Liège II 2+ goals
26%
Standard Liège II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)
72%
Standard Liège II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Standard Liège II away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.27 + Standard Liège II defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

Standard Liège II attack 0.40 + Rochefort defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rochefort scores more
55%
level
24%
Standard Liège II scores more
22%

Rochefort at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rochefort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rochefort
WDLLD
II
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochefort face Standard Liège II (League #487)

League #487 returns with Rochefort hosting Standard Liège II. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.