Rochedale Rovers 3–1 Souths United: Result & Stats

Rochedale Rovers

FT

3 – 1

Souths United

7/24/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 17OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rochedale Rovers62%

×Draw18%

Souths United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchSouths United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.47

Rochedale Rovers

2.63

Souths United

1.47

Rochedale Rovers creates 79% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

2.85

creates per match

1.50

1.44

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.85

Souths United

1.50

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.44

Souths United

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Souths United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Souths United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

80%

Rochedale Rovers or Souths United

82%

Draw or Souths United

38%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

41%

Souths United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

93%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

73%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

48%

Souths United 1+ goals

77%

Souths United 2+ goals

43%

Souths United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

75%

Souths United (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Souths United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + Souths United defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.63

Souths United attack 1.50 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

62%

level

18%

Souths United scores more

20%

Rochedale Rovers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff