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Rochedale Rovers vs SC Wanderers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
FT
1 – 0
SC Wanderers
SC Wanderers
8/13/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 21OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rochedale Rovers54%
×Draw20%
SC Wanderers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochedale Rovers
2.24
SC Wanderers
1.48

Rochedale Rovers creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 41 away

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers
2.85
SC Wanderers
1.51

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers
1.44
SC Wanderers
1.63

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par
SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

SC Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw
75%
Rochedale Rovers or SC Wanderers
80%
Draw or SC Wanderers
46%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
33%
SC Wanderers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
89%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
65%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
38%
SC Wanderers 1+ goals
77%
SC Wanderers 2+ goals
43%
SC Wanderers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
68%
SC Wanderers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + SC Wanderers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.24

SC Wanderers attack 1.51 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more
54%
level
20%
SC Wanderers scores more
25%

Rochedale Rovers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Rochedale Rovers 1–0 SC Wanderers

Rochedale Rovers beat SC Wanderers 1-0 in Queensland Premier League on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at OldMac Stadium in Brisbane.