Rochedale Rovers 3–1 Magpies Crusaders

Rochedale Rovers

FT

3 – 1

Magpies Crusaders

8/27/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 19OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rochedale Rovers57%

×Draw18%

Magpies Crusaders26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchMagpies Crusaders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.97

Rochedale Rovers

2.92

Magpies Crusaders

1.97

Rochedale Rovers creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

2.85

creates per match

2.50

1.44

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.85

Magpies Crusaders

2.50

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.44

Magpies Crusaders

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Magpies Crusaders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

74%

Rochedale Rovers or Magpies Crusaders

82%

Draw or Magpies Crusaders

43%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

38%

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

94%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

78%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

55%

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

86%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

58%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

69%

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

57%

level

18%

Magpies Crusaders scores more

26%

Rochedale Rovers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff