Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs

Rochedale Rovers

Preview

09:30

Eastern Suburbs

7/31/2026

Queensland NPL · Round 20

Big match

41%

Eastern Suburbs

model favours

38%21%41%

Rochedale Rovers score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

74%

over 2.5 goals

73%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rochedale Rovers38%

×Draw21%

Eastern Suburbs41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.97

Rochedale Rovers

1.88

Eastern Suburbs

1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

2.16

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.47

Eastern Suburbs

1.77

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.16

Eastern Suburbs

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

59%

Rochedale Rovers or Eastern Suburbs

79%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

62%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

86%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

58%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

48%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.47 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Rochedale Rovers defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

38%

level

21%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

41%

Eastern Suburbs at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both sides lean high-scoring (77% and 82% over 2.5)
Eastern Suburbs score first in only 23% of matches
82% of Eastern Suburbs’s matches go over 2.5 goals
77% of Rochedale Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Rochedale Rovers have scored in 7 games running
Both teams score in 73% of Eastern Suburbs’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Rovers

LLLDW

Suburbs

LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff