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Eastern Suburbs vs Rochedale Rovers — League #191 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
3 – 2
Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
3/18/2017League #191League #191 · Round 5Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Eastern Suburbs48%
×Draw21%
Rochedale Rovers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
2.07
Rochedale Rovers
1.64

Eastern Suburbs creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.33
Rochedale Rovers
1.95

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.33
Rochedale Rovers
1.81

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Rochedale Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
69%
Eastern Suburbs or Rochedale Rovers
79%
Draw or Rochedale Rovers
52%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
27%
Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
87%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
61%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
34%
Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
81%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
49%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
61%
Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.33 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.07

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.95 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
48%
level
21%
Rochedale Rovers scores more
31%

Eastern Suburbs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #191: Eastern Suburbs 3–2 Rochedale Rovers

Eastern Suburbs beat Rochedale Rovers 3-2 in League #191 on March 18, 2017.

The match was played at Heath Park in Brisbane.