Roche Saint-Genest 1–2 Saint-Priest: Result & Stats

Roche Saint-Genest

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Saint-Priest

11/18/2023

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade Salif Keita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Roche Saint-Genest33%

×Draw22%

Saint-Priest45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roche Saint-GenestExpected goals in this matchSaint-Priest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.92

Roche Saint-Genest

1.63

Saint-Priest

1.92

Saint-Priest creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

2.50

1.33

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Roche Saint-Genest

1.00

Saint-Priest

2.50

allows per match

Roche Saint-Genest

1.33

Saint-Priest

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roche Saint-Genest+0.00on par

Saint-Priest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roche Saint-Genest ↓

Saint-Priest →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Roche Saint-Genest or draw

55%

Roche Saint-Genest or Saint-Priest

78%

Draw or Saint-Priest

67%

Winning margin

Roche Saint-Genest wins by 2+

16%

Saint-Priest wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Roche Saint-Genest 1+ goals

80%

Roche Saint-Genest 2+ goals

48%

Roche Saint-Genest 3+ goals

22%

Saint-Priest 1+ goals

85%

Saint-Priest 2+ goals

57%

Saint-Priest 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Roche Saint-Genest (draw refunded)

43%

Saint-Priest (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roche Saint-Genest at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Saint-Priest away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roche Saint-Genest attack 1.00 + Saint-Priest defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Saint-Priest attack 2.50 + Roche Saint-Genest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roche Saint-Genest scores more

33%

level

22%

Saint-Priest scores more

45%

Saint-Priest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint-Priest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roche Saint-Genest vs Saint-Priest

Saint-Priest beat Roche Saint-Genest 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Salif Keita in Saint-Étienne.

Roche Saint-Genest vs Saint-Priest — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Roche Saint-Genest vs Saint-Priest