Roche Saint-Genest 0–1 Rodez: Result & Stats

Roche Saint-Genest

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rodez

11/19/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Maurice Rousson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Roche Saint-Genest23%

×Draw22%

Rodez55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roche Saint-GenestExpected goals in this matchRodez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.93

Roche Saint-Genest

1.18

Rodez

1.93

Rodez creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

2.53

1.33

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Roche Saint-Genest

1.00

Rodez

2.53

allows per match

Roche Saint-Genest

1.33

Rodez

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roche Saint-Genest+0.00on par

Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roche Saint-Genest ↓

Rodez →

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Roche Saint-Genest or draw

45%

Roche Saint-Genest or Rodez

78%

Draw or Rodez

77%

Winning margin

Roche Saint-Genest wins by 2+

Rodez wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Roche Saint-Genest 1+ goals

69%

Roche Saint-Genest 2+ goals

33%

Roche Saint-Genest 3+ goals

12%

Rodez 1+ goals

85%

Rodez 2+ goals

57%

Rodez 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Roche Saint-Genest (draw refunded)

30%

Rodez (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roche Saint-Genest at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Rodez away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roche Saint-Genest attack 1.00 + Rodez defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rodez attack 2.53 + Roche Saint-Genest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Roche Saint-Genest scores more

23%

level

22%

Rodez scores more

55%

Rodez at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff