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Rochdale vs York — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
15:00
York
York
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Spotland Stadium
Big match
41%
Rochdale
model favours
41%26%33%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rochdale41%
×Draw26%
York33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.39
York
1.23

Rochdale creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
York
1.13

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
York
1.40

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
67%
Rochdale or York
74%
Draw or York
59%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
19%
York wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
75%
Rochdale 2+ goals
40%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
York 1+ goals
71%
York 2+ goals
35%
York 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
55%
York (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

York attack 1.13 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rochdale scores more
41%
level
26%
York scores more
33%

Rochdale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Rochdale hosting York. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rochdale host York at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.