Rochdale 1–1 York: Result & Stats | League #43

Rochdale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

York

E. Dieseruvwe 90'

J. Stones 90'

4/25/2026

League #43 · Round 46Spotland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rochdale33%

×Draw25%

York41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchYork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.47

Rochdale

1.29

York

1.47

York creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

1.50

creates per match

1.63

1.31

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Rochdale

1.50

York

1.63

allows per match

Rochdale

1.31

York

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

York+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

York →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

59%

Rochdale or York

75%

Draw or York

67%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

14%

York wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

37%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

York 1+ goals

77%

York 2+ goals

43%

York 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

45%

York (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

York away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.50 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

York attack 1.63 + Rochdale defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rochdale scores more

33%

level

25%

York scores more

41%

York at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

35'

59'

67'

67'

A. Barlow← L. Hannant

67'

I. Henderson← D. Rodney

69'

R. Fallowfield← J. King

69'

J. Grey← A. Hunt

69'

D. Batty← O. Banks

75'

C. Howe← B. Brookes

76'

J. Pritchard← T. Adebayo-Rowling

84'

88'

90+2'

90+6'

90+6'

90+13'

90'

90'

Rochdale

York

1

Male

15

▼

4

29

3

8

▼

Hunt

21

Boateng

14

▼

Brookes

28

▼

Banks

10

▼

Pearce

9

⚽

1

2

6

25

8

▼

Gilmour

4

▼

East

14

▼

Adebayo-R

10

▼

Rodney

12

▼

Hannant

22

Moss

9

⚽

Dieseruvw

Manager: Jim McNulty

67'▲C. Pettit←▼R. East

67'▲A. Barlow←▼L. Hannant

67'▲I. Henderson←▼D. Rodney

76'▲J. Pritchard←▼T. Adebayo-Rowling

84'▲T. Smith←▼H. Gilmour

Rochdale substitutes

16Pettit17Pritchard18Barlow35Baptiste36Francis38Smith40Henderson

69'▲R. Fallowfield←▼J. King

69'▲J. Grey←▼A. Hunt

69'▲D. Batty←▼O. Banks

75'▲C. Howe←▼B. Brookes

88'▲G. Olley←▼O. Pearce

York substitutes

31Sykes-Kenworthy2Fallowfield5Howe12Grey18Batty22Olley30Newby

Rochdale 1 – 1 York

Rochdale and York drew 1-1 in League #43 on April 25, 2026.

Goals: E. Dieseruvwe (90'), J. Stones (90').

The match was played at Spotland Stadium in Rochdale.

Rochdale vs York — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Rochdale 1 – 1 York