Rochdale 1–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Rochdale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

I. Henderson 79'

4/19/2019

League One · Round 43Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale36%

×Draw26%

Wycombe39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Rochdale

1.33

Wycombe

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 158 away

1.33

creates per match

1.26

1.54

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

61%

Rochdale or Wycombe

74%

Draw or Wycombe

64%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

16%

Wycombe wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

74%

Rochdale 2+ goals

38%

Rochdale 3+ goals

15%

Wycombe 1+ goals

75%

Wycombe 2+ goals

41%

Wycombe 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

48%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more

36%

level

26%

Wycombe scores more

39%

Wycombe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Keohane← R. McLaughlin

64'

R. Pyke← K. Ntlhe

70'

P. Cowan-Hall← S. Kashket

79'

I. Henderson

82'

C. Andrew← I. Henderson

83'

Oliver Rathbone

90+1'

A. Stewart← A. Samuel

Rochdale

Wycombe

1

2

6

16

26

18

4

22

20

25

▼

Samuel

11

▼

Kashket

1

Lillis

4

McNulty

2

▼

McLaughli

6

Ebanks-La

3

▼

39

16

10

14

18

40

⚽

▼

Henderson

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

32'▲J. Keohane←▼R. McLaughlin

64'▲R. Pyke←▼K. Ntlhe

82'▲C. Andrew←▼I. Henderson

Rochdale substitutes

13Keohane30Pyke9Andrew8Williams25Adshead27Hamilton31Wade

Manager: G. Ainsworth

70'▲P. Cowan-Hall←▼S. Kashket

90+1'▲A. Stewart←▼A. Samuel

Wycombe substitutes

12Cowan-Hall5Stewart3Jacobson8Bean10Bloomfield15Owens30Ma-Kalambay