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Rochdale vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
18:45
Tranmere
Tranmere
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Spotland Stadium
Big match
43%
Rochdale
model favours
43%26%31%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale43%
×Draw26%
Tranmere31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.42
Tranmere
1.15

Rochdale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 144 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
69%
Rochdale or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
57%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
21%
Tranmere wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
76%
Rochdale 2+ goals
41%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%
Tranmere 1+ goals
68%
Tranmere 2+ goals
32%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
59%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rochdale scores more
43%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
31%

Rochdale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Tranmere
Balanced
53%Possession50%
71%Pass accuracy67%
10.8ShotsBiggest gap12.0
—xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleTranmere

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Rochdale
2
Draws
1
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
2–21–10–21–03–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale face Tranmere (League Two)

League Two returns with Rochdale hosting Tranmere. Match starts April 13, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rochdale host Tranmere at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.