Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rochdale vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Spotland Stadium
Big match
38%
Rochdale
model favours
38%25%37%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale38%
×Draw25%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.42
Swindon Town
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 139 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Swindon Town
1.49

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Swindon Town
1.45

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Swindon Town
75%
Draw or Swindon Town
62%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
18%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
76%
Rochdale 2+ goals
41%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
41%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochdale scores more
38%
level
25%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Rochdale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
51%Possession54%
70%Pass accuracy72%
10.3ShotsBiggest gap12.6
—xG1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleSwindon Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Rochdale
3
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 67%
4–40–30–02–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Rochdale hosting Swindon Town. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rochdale host Swindon Town at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.