Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rochdale vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
18:45
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Spotland Stadium
Big match
48%
Rochdale
model favours
48%25%27%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rochdale48%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.58
Shrewsbury
1.12

Rochdale creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 24 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Shrewsbury
0.92

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Shrewsbury
1.79

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
73%
Rochdale or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
52%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
25%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
79%
Rochdale 2+ goals
47%
Rochdale 3+ goals
21%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
67%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
31%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
64%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Shrewsbury defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shrewsbury attack 0.92 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rochdale scores more
48%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
27%

Rochdale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
51%PossessionBiggest gap44%
70%Pass accuracy60%
10.3Shots11.4
—xG0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleShrewsbury

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Rochdale
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
0–22–11–00–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Shrewsbury

September 1, 2026: Rochdale take on Shrewsbury in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Shrewsbury at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.