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Rochdale vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
11/23/2019League OneLeague One · Round 19Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Rochdale29%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.15
Portsmouth
1.48

Portsmouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 134 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.19
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Rochdale
1.62
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
55%
Rochdale or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
71%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
12%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
68%
Rochdale 2+ goals
32%
Rochdale 3+ goals
11%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
77%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
43%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
40%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.19 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Rochdale defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rochdale scores more
29%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
45%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Rochdale 3-0 in League One on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.