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Rochdale vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Spotland Stadium
Big match
38%
Rochdale
model favours
38%28%34%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochdale38%
×Draw28%
Port Vale34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.19
Port Vale
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.20
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Rochdale
0.80
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
66%
Rochdale or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
62%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
70%
Rochdale 2+ goals
33%
Rochdale 3+ goals
12%
Port Vale 1+ goals
67%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
53%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.20 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Rochdale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochdale scores more
38%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
34%

Rochdale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
LDWWW
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Port Vale

January 30, 2027: Rochdale take on Port Vale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Port Vale at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.