Rochdale 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League Two

Rochdale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Port Vale

J. Ball 90+3'

B. Garrity 45'

2/22/2022

League Two · Round 24Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochdale38%

×Draw28%

Port Vale34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.11

Rochdale

1.19

Port Vale

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

1.20

creates per match

1.42

0.80

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Rochdale

1.20

Port Vale

1.42

allows per match

Rochdale

0.80

Port Vale

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

66%

Rochdale or Port Vale

72%

Draw or Port Vale

62%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

16%

Port Vale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

70%

Rochdale 2+ goals

33%

Rochdale 3+ goals

12%

Port Vale 1+ goals

67%

Port Vale 2+ goals

30%

Port Vale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

53%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.20 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Rochdale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochdale scores more

38%

level

28%

Port Vale scores more

34%

Rochdale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Taylor

Rochdale · D

7.7

Match Events

45'

B. Garrity↳ C. Hussey

46'

D. Worrall← J. Gibbons

55'

David Worrall

58'

A. Odoh← A. Newby

58'

L. Kelly← C. Grant

73'

D. Amoo← J. Proctor

75'

L. Charman← J. Dorsett

76'

Eoghan O'Connell

85'

H. Charsley← J. Cooper

90+6'

Corey O'Keeffe

90+3'

J. Ball↳ C. O'Keeffe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdalePort

Overview

50%Possession50%

3Total Shots10

1Corners8

9Fouls11

Shots

3Total Shots10

1On Target3

2Off Target4

0Blocked3

1Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

439Total Passes433

292Accurate Passes303

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3