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Rochdale vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Spotland Stadium
Big match
44%
Rochdale
model favours
44%28%28%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochdale44%
×Draw28%
Oldham28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.30
Oldham
0.99

Rochdale creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 45 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.20
Oldham
1.18

allows per match

Rochdale
0.80
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
72%
Rochdale or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
56%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
20%
Oldham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
73%
Rochdale 2+ goals
37%
Rochdale 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
63%
Oldham 2+ goals
26%
Oldham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
61%
Oldham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.20 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Oldham attack 1.18 + Rochdale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rochdale scores more
44%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
28%

Rochdale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Oldham
Attack-heavy
52%Possession47%
70%Pass accuracy63%
10.5ShotsBiggest gap12.5
—xG1.62
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Rochdale
3
Draws
2
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–10–11–13–40–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
LDWWW
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale face Oldham (League Two)

League Two returns with Rochdale hosting Oldham. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rochdale host Oldham at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.